AUSTRALIA vs CANADA result - WORLD CUP 2026 — GROUP G

Win probability based on our pre-match model.

CANADA came through 4–1, a comfortable enough margin on paper, though AUSTRALIA kept themselves in contention for stretches before the gap opened up.

This was an upset. Our model rated AUSTRALIA at 61%, and the underdog came through convincingly. AUSTRALIA will be doing a lot of soul-searching after that margin.