AUSTRALIA vs UNITED STATES result - WORLD CUP 2026 — GROUP G

Win probability based on our pre-match model.

UNITED STATES scraped through 4–3 in a hard-fought affair. With just 1 leg separating the sides, the margins were as small as it gets in this format.

Our model had AUSTRALIA at 63% going in. UNITED STATES proved that wrong, though only just, a narrow margin that keeps the upset label in perspective. Close matches like this can go either way regardless of what the stats suggest.