CROATIA vs JAPAN result - WORLD CUP 2026 — GROUP K

Win probability based on our pre-match model.

JAPAN edged through 4–3 in a real war. With just 1 leg separating the sides, a single leg in either direction could have flipped the result.

JAPAN were the 62% favourites but had to work harder than our model implied. The 4–3 scoreline wasn't the walk-through the numbers had in mind, the result came in, but not with the comfort our model had in mind.