CROATIA vs SPAIN result - WORLD CUP 2026 — GROUP K

Win probability based on our pre-match model.

SPAIN scraped through 4–3 in a closely contested tie. With just 1 leg separating the sides, the margins were as small as it gets in this format.

SPAIN were the 65% favourites but were made to earn it in a way our 65% rating didn't suggest. The 4–3 scoreline reflects a match that was far from straightforward, the result came in, but not with the comfort our model had in mind.