Win probability based on our pre-match model.

England edged through 8–7 in a closely contested tie. With just 1 leg separating the sides, a single leg in either direction could have flipped the result.

England were the 85% favourites but had to work harder than our model implied. The 8–7 scoreline wasn't the walk-through the numbers had in mind, the result came in, but not with the comfort our model had in mind.