FINLAND vs NORWAY result - WORLD CUP 2026 — GROUP L

Win probability based on our pre-match model.

NORWAY edged through 4–3 in a closely contested tie. With just 1 leg separating the sides, a single leg in either direction could have flipped the result.

Our model had FINLAND at 52% going in. NORWAY proved that wrong, though only just, a narrow margin that keeps the upset label in perspective. Narrow wins like this often say more about fine margins than form.