Win probability based on our pre-match model.

Germany edged through 8–6 in a real war. With just 2 legs separating the sides, a single leg in either direction could have flipped the result.

Germany were the 62% favourites but were made to earn it in a way our 62% rating didn't suggest. The 8–6 scoreline reflects a match that was far from straightforward, the result came in, but not with the comfort our model had in mind.