ITALY vs TRINIDAD & TOBAGO result - WORLD CUP 2026 — GROUP J

Win probability based on our pre-match model.

ITALY came through 4–2 in a hard-fought affair. With just 2 legs separating the sides, it went to the wire before ITALY held on.

ITALY were the 87% favourites but found it tougher than the stats going in would have indicated. The 4–2 scoreline tells a tighter story than our model expected, the result came in, but not with the comfort our model had in mind.