LATVIA vs ITALY result - WORLD CUP 2026 — GROUP J

Win probability based on our pre-match model.

LATVIA edged through 4–2 in a hard-fought affair. With just 2 legs separating the sides, a single leg in either direction could have flipped the result.

LATVIA were the 57% favourites but were made to earn it in a way our 57% rating didn't suggest. The 4–2 scoreline reflects a match that was far from straightforward, the result came in, but not with the comfort our model had in mind.