LITHUANIA vs THAILAND result - WORLD CUP 2026 — GROUP C

Win probability based on our pre-match model.

LITHUANIA scraped through 4–2 in a real war. With just 2 legs separating the sides, the margins were as small as it gets in this format.

LITHUANIA were the 77% favourites but were made to earn it in a way our 77% rating didn't suggest. The 4–2 scoreline reflects a match that was far from straightforward, the result came in, but not with the comfort our model had in mind.