Win probability based on our pre-match model.

Netherlands were commanding from the outset, winning 8–2 in one of the more one-sided ties of the round. Northern Ireland never looked like closing the gap once Netherlands hit their stride.

Netherlands entered as 64% favourites and came through with room to spare. Exactly the kind of result our model suggested was likeliest, our stats had this leaning their way, but they still had to produce under tournament conditions.