Win probability based on our pre-match model.

Netherlands came through 8–6 in a tight battle. With just 2 legs separating the sides, it went to the wire before Netherlands held on.

Netherlands were the 81% favourites but found it tougher than the stats going in would have indicated. The 8–6 scoreline tells a tighter story than our model expected, the result came in, but not with the comfort our model had in mind.