Win probability based on our pre-match model.

Northern Ireland edged through 8–7 in a genuine dogfight. With just 1 leg separating the sides, a single leg in either direction could have flipped the result.

Northern Ireland were the 85% favourites but found it tougher than the stats going in would have indicated. The 8–7 scoreline tells a tighter story than our model expected, the result came in, but not with the comfort our model had in mind.