SWEDEN vs SOUTH AFRICA result - WORLD CUP 2026 — GROUP F

Win probability based on our pre-match model.

SWEDEN edged through 4–2 in a real war. With just 2 legs separating the sides, a single leg in either direction could have flipped the result.

SWEDEN were the 80% favourites but found it tougher than the stats going in would have indicated. The 4–2 scoreline tells a tighter story than our model expected, the result came in, but not with the comfort our model had in mind.